Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 86

Washington Commanders 20 – Arizona Cardinals 15

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to ARI 33, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-B.Golden to ARI 48 for 15 yards (57-N.Sundberg). ARI-10-B.Golden was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.61 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 86, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model