4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 21

Arizona Cardinals 15 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(:23) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald (36-D.Swearinger). PENALTY on WAS-36-D.Swearinger, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +3.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.66 EP