Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 60

Chicago Bears 3 – Detroit Lions 20

(6:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 26 for 16 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
60% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 60, worth -3.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model