Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- CHI offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Mitch Trubisky (CHI): -0.088 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- DET defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- CHI defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
CHI
DET
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:03 FG DET (12:03) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 0 – DET 3
- Q2 15:00 FG DET (15:00) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. CHI 0 – DET 6
- Q2 06:15 TD DET (6:15) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 13-T.Jones for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 0 – DET 12
- Q2 00:07 FG CHI (:07) (No Huddle) 1-M.Nugent 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-A.DePaola, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – DET 13
- Q3 09:54 TD DET (9:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – DET 19
- Q4 02:39 TD CHI (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 30-B.Cunningham for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 9 – DET 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 78%
(12:03) 5-M.Prater 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 30, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 37 for 7 yards (30-B.Cunningham).
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Q1 DET 4th & 10 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%
(7:29) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.
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Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(5:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 26, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 38 for 12 yards (49-A.DePaola).
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Q2 DET 4th & 10 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 95%
(15:00) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.68 EPp(convert) 68%
(12:06) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 5, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 28 for 23 yards (16-P.O'Donnell). PENALTY on DET-31-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at DET 16.
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Q2 CHI 4th & 7 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 51%
(1:05) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 35 yards to DET 7, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(6:23) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 10, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 26 for 16 yards (27-S.McManis).
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Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(3:59) 6-S.Martin punts 24 yards to CHI 46, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds. PENALTY on CHI-53-J.Timu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 46.
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Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 19 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 92%
(2:51) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 24, and recovers at DET 27. 10-M.Trubisky to DET 14 for 13 yards (94-E.Ansah). PENALTY on DET-24-N.Lawson, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at DET 14.
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Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 70 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:19) 6-S.Martin punts 64 yards to CHI 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.