Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 69

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(9:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 30, Center-49-A.DePaola. 39-J.Agnew to DET 37 for 7 yards (30-B.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 69, worth -4.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model