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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 70

Detroit Lions 20 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 6-S.Martin punts 64 yards to CHI 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.13 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 70, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 28, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model