4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 51

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model