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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 13

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model