Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 58

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:12) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for 2 yards (50-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (50-E.Wilson), and recovers at CIN 15. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 24 for 9 yards (30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 58, worth -2.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model