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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
MIN Home

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 12.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CIN
29.4%
MIN
70.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.129 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • MIN offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (MIN): +0.134 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • CIN defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 19
–
MIN 26
Projected margin: MIN by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

CIN

Vontaze Burfict LB Out Concussion
Dre Kirkpatrick CB Out Concussion
Kevin Minter LB Out Hamstring
Nick Vigil LB Out Ankle
T.J. Johnson C Doubtful Pectoral
Joe Mixon RB Questionable Concussion
Shawn Williams S Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Mackensie Alexander CB Out Ribs
Blake Bell TE Out Shoulder
Kyle Rudolph TE Doubtful Ankle
Riley Reiff T Doubtful Ankle
Emmanuel Lamur LB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 7
–
MIN 34

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:35 TD MIN (10:35) (Run formation) 75-J.Sirles reported in as eligible. 25-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 06:05 TD MIN (6:05) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 12-A.Erickson INTERCEPTED by 54-E.Kendricks at CIN 31. 54-E.Kendricks for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIN 13
  • Q1 01:35 FG MIN (1:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. CIN 0 – MIN 17
  • Q2 06:47 TD MIN (6:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIN 23
  • Q3 06:37 FG MIN (6:37) 2-K.Forbath 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. CIN 0 – MIN 27
  • Q4 12:59 TD MIN (12:59) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – MIN 33
  • Q4 06:26 TD CIN (6:26) (Run formation) 66-T.Hopkins reported in as eligible. 25-G.Bernard right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – MIN 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (9:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 16 yards (40-B.Wilson).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:07) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 46 yards to CIN 18, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 19 for 1 yard (50-E.Wilson).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (3:46) 25-G.Bernard right guard to CIN 38 for no gain (42-B.Gedeon; 54-E.Kendricks).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 68%

    (1:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 4 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (:01) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to MIN 30, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 40 for 10 yards (46-C.Harris).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:12) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to CIN 13, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 15 for 2 yards (50-E.Wilson). FUMBLES (50-E.Wilson), and recovers at CIN 15. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 24 for 9 yards (30-C.Ham).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:13) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 44 yards to MIN 23, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 50 yards to MIN 25, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 31 for 6 yards (89-R.Hewitt).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (1:16) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 53 yards to CIN 2, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to MIN 42, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 42 for no gain (87-C.Uzomah; 56-H.Nickerson). PENALTY on MIN-42-B.Gedeon, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 39.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 3 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 29%

    (12:08) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to MIN 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%

    (6:37) 2-K.Forbath 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (1:39) 10-K.Huber punts 26 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 9 yards (40-B.Wilson). PENALTY on MIN-24-T.Brock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 26.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (7:54) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short middle to 12-A.Erickson to MIN 9 for 11 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:51) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 45%

    (2:06) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Malone. CIN-71-A.Smith was injured during the play.