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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 24 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 2-K.Forbath 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.17 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model