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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 10-K.Huber punts 26 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.38 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model