4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(10:51) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to MIN 17, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 26 for 9 yards (40-B.Wilson). PENALTY on MIN-24-T.Brock, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIN 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model