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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 20

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(7:54) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass short middle to 12-A.Erickson to MIN 9 for 11 yards (42-B.Gedeon).

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.92 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.59 EP