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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(4:51) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to CIN 24, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 69, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model