4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 68

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(9:07) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-C.Harris. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 32 for 16 yards (40-B.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 68, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 26, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model