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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – Minnesota Vikings 34

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 5-A.McCarron pass incomplete deep left to 80-J.Malone. CIN-71-A.Smith was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.59 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -1.60 EP
KICK -0.12 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model