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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(3:46) 25-G.Bernard right guard to CIN 38 for no gain (42-B.Gedeon; 54-E.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.76 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model