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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(1:35) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.39 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model