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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to DAL 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.85 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP