Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LV defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Dak Prescott (DAL): -0.062 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- LV offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
DAL
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:01 FG DAL (5:01) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – OAK 0
- Q2 14:07 TD DAL (14:07) 73-J.Looney reported in as eligible. 45-R.Smith up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – OAK 0
- Q3 08:08 TD LV (8:08) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 10 – OAK 6
- Q3 06:18 FG LV (6:18) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. DAL 10 – OAK 10
- Q3 00:53 TD DAL (:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – OAK 10
- Q4 10:40 TD LV (10:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – OAK 16
- Q4 01:47 FG DAL (1:47) 5-D.Bailey 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 20 – OAK 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(9:12) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DAL 32, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-50-N.Morrow.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%
(5:01) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(4:00) 7-M.King punts 50 yards to DAL 18, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 25 for 7 yards (55-M.Lee, 56-X.Woodson-Luster). PENALTY on LV-16-J.Holton, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 25.
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Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EPp(convert) 69% p(FG) 24%
(8:20) 7-M.King punts 42 yards to DAL 10, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:12) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 31, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.
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Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%
(6:18) 2-G.Tavecchio 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 76Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 34%
(4:45) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones right end ran ob at DAL 48 for 24 yards (30-J.Richard).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 3 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EPp(convert) 55%
(8:15) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25.
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Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(6:42) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to DAL 22, Center-59-J.Condo. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at DAL 30 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 71%
(5:06) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 40 for 1 yard (50-N.Morrow).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 1 late-gameChose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EPp(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%
(1:47) 5-D.Bailey 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.