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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 6-C.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 25, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP