Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

(9:12) 7-M.King punts 33 yards to DAL 32, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-50-N.Morrow.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
55% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model