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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 61

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to DAL 40 for 1 yard (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.55 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model