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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 1

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Las Vegas Raiders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 5-D.Bailey 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 1, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.72 EP