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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 27

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 5-D.Bailey 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 37, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model