Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 76

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 18 for no gain (14-C.Thompson). PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
69% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 76, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model