Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- JAX defense: -0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- HOU offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
HOU
JAX
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:54 TD JAX (3:54) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – JAX 6
- Q2 14:51 TD JAX (14:51) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 85-J.Mickens for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. HOU 0 – JAX 13
- Q2 10:18 TD JAX (10:18) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 85-J.Mickens for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – JAX 20
- Q2 00:56 FG JAX (:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. HOU 0 – JAX 24
- Q2 00:29 TD JAX (:29) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 84-K.Cole for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Clowney]. PENALTY on HOU-90-J.Clowney, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 0 – JAX 30
- Q3 08:17 TD HOU (8:17) (Shotgun) 2-T.Yates pass deep left to 10-D.Hopkins for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 6 – JAX 31
- Q3 07:16 TD JAX (7:16) 40-T.Bohanon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – JAX 37
- Q4 10:30 TD JAX (10:30) 30-C.Grant up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – JAX 44
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 11 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(13:45) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 18, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 18 for no gain (14-C.Thompson). PENALTY on JAX-53-B.Brown, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at JAX 18.
-
Q1 JAX 4th & 6 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(12:22) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 58 yards to HOU 29, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 14 at the 75Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(10:54) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at JAX 22 for 5 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).
-
Q1 HOU 4th & 19 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23%
(1:49) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens to HOU 48 for 37 yards (28-A.Blue). FUMBLES (28-A.Blue), recovered by JAX-30-C.Grant at HOU 48. 30-C.Grant to HOU 48 for no gain (9-S.Lechler). Houston challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at JAX 41 for 26 yards.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 59%
(13:18) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to JAX 37, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 39Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 54%
(6:02) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(3:02) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to HOU 20, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller V.
-
Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(1:57) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to JAX 33, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 40 for 7 yards (22-J.Todman). PENALTY on HOU-9-S.Lechler, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
-
Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%
(:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(12:55) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 65 yards to HOU 3, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-W.Fuller V to HOU 19 for 16 yards (55-L.McCray).
-
Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 37Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 46% p(FG) 60%
(2:26) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to HOU 2, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.
-
Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 92Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 49%
(1:15) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to JAX 47, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens pushed ob at HOU 26 for 27 yards (28-A.Blue). PENALTY on JAX-52-D.Payne, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 47.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(13:37) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 48 yards to HOU 10, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(12:38) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 30 yards to HOU 45, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(7:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.
-
Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 68Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 72%
(5:25) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to HOU 25, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 11-D.White.
-
Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 69 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(3:47) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.