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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 39

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(6:02) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to JAX 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.97 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model