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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model