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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 37

Jacksonville Jaguars 38 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:26) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to HOU 2, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.31 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP