Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 75

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(10:54) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 58 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Weeks. 85-J.Mickens ran ob at JAX 22 for 5 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

The Three Options

GO -2.88 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.68 EP
73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 75, worth -4.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model