Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 62

Houston Texans 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 45

(7:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 39 yards to JAX 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.66 EP
76% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 62, worth -3.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model