Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 46

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.55 EP
67% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 46, worth -2.73 EP

KICK -1.41 EP

33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
67% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model