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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Saturday 2017-12-16 · 20:25 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LAC
57.4%
KC
42.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.181 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.122 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.215 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: -0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 25
–
KC 21
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

LAC

Casey Hayward CB Questionable Calf

KC

Mitch Morse C Out Foot
Tamba Hali LB Questionable Knee
Eric Murray S Questionable Ankle
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 13
–
KC 30

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:01 FG KC (:01) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. LAC 0 – KC 3
  • Q2 06:39 TD KC (6:39) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – KC 9
  • Q2 02:05 TD LAC (2:05) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC-95-C.Jones was injured during the play. LAC 6 – KC 10
  • Q3 09:26 TD LAC (9:26) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – KC 10
  • Q3 02:14 TD KC (2:14) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-20-D.King, Defensive Holding, declined. LAC 13 – KC 16
  • Q3 00:31 FG KC (:31) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. LAC 13 – KC 20
  • Q4 11:04 FG KC (11:04) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. LAC 13 – KC 23
  • Q4 04:01 TD KC (4:01) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – KC 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 18 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:46) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to KC 17, Center-47-M.Windt. 10-T.Hill to KC 18 for 1 yard (34-D.Watt).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for 6 yards (51-F.Zombo). PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 30.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (9:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to KC 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 49-D.Sorensen MUFFS catch, touched at KC 14, recovered by KC-82-O.Charles at KC 6. 82-O.Charles to KC 6 for no gain (84-S.McGrath).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 62%

    (1:28) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt pushed ob at LAC 14 for 21 yards (20-D.King).

  • Q1 KC 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 95%

    (:01) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 33%

    (8:29) 8-D.Kaser punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 64%

    (:12) 7-H.Butker 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (:31) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 67%

    (11:04) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 30%

    (8:29) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right intended for 85-A.Gates INTERCEPTED by 38-R.Parker [50-J.Houston] at KC 35. 38-R.Parker to KC 35 for no gain (85-A.Gates).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon up the middle to LAC 38 for 4 yards (50-J.Houston).

  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 48%

    (1:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LAC 8, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.