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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 58

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to LAC 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.55 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP