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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 6

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(:31) 7-H.Butker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth +0.14 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model