Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to LAC 24, Center-41-J.Winchester. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 30 for 6 yards (51-F.Zombo). PENALTY on LAC-56-K.Toomer, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.45 EP
48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model