Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to KC 32, Center-47-M.Windt. 49-D.Sorensen MUFFS catch, touched at KC 14, recovered by KC-82-O.Charles at KC 6. 82-O.Charles to KC 6 for no gain (84-S.McGrath).

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 75, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model