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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 35

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:28) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 27-K.Hunt pushed ob at LAC 14 for 21 yards (20-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.00 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.64 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model