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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(:01) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.99 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model