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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.70 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model