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Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2017-12-17 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

MIA
41.6%
BUF
58.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.144 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF offense: -0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BUF defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tyrod Taylor (BUF) -0.003 vs Jay Cutler (MIA) -0.040 EPA/dropback (BUF starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Nathan Peterman)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 22
–
BUF 23
Projected margin: BUF by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

MIA

Jermon Bushrod G Out Foot
Michael Thomas S Doubtful Knee
Damien Williams RB Doubtful Shoulder
Matt Moore QB Doubtful Foot
Cordrea Tankersley CB Doubtful Ankle
Xavien Howard CB Questionable Illness
Jordan Phillips DT Questionable Ankle
Andre Branch DE Questionable Knee

BUF

Cordy Glenn T Out Foot
John Miller G Out Ankle
Nathan Peterman QB Out Concussion
Kelvin Benjamin WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 16
–
BUF 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:16 TD BUF (10:16) 25-L.McCoy right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIA-75-C.Malveaux, Defensive Offside, declined. MIA 0 – BUF 6
  • Q1 03:20 FG MIA (3:20) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 3 – BUF 7
  • Q2 09:20 FG MIA (9:20) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 6 – BUF 7
  • Q2 06:10 TD BUF (6:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 25-L.McCoy for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, slanting to sideline. MIA 6 – BUF 13
  • Q2 00:40 TD BUF (:40) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – BUF 20
  • Q3 05:44 FG BUF (5:44) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. MIA 6 – BUF 24
  • Q4 08:02 TD MIA (8:02) 32-K.Drake up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 12 – BUF 24
  • Q4 00:43 FG MIA (:43) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack. MIA 16 – BUF 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:39) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 32 for 2 yards (45-M.Hull).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (7:15) 6-C.Schmidt punts 38 yards to MIA 34, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 41 for 7 yards (40-T.Vallejo).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (3:20) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:28) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to MIA 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (9:20) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:33) 16-M.Haack punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-92-J.Denney, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (11:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 85-C.Clay. Overthrown, receiver near sideline at MIA 3.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short left intended for 10-K.Stills INTERCEPTED by 20-S.Wright at BUF 23. 20-S.Wright to MIA 31 for 46 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at MIA 24. 20-S.Wright to MIA 23 for 1 yard (89-J.Thomas).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 93%

    (5:44) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:19) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to BUF 32, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 21%

    (:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 51 yards to MIA 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-18-A.Holmes. Ball saved by L.Pitts at MIA 1.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:50) 16-M.Haack punts 49 yards to BUF 7, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to MIA 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to BUF 26 for 26 yards (44-D.Lacey). PENALTY on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Horse Collar Tackle, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 26.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 36 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 60%

    (4:40) 6-C.Schmidt punts 22 yards to MIA 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 14-J.Landry to BUF 39 for 17 yards (24-L.Johnson) [57-L.Alexander]. Caught at BUF 39, slanting from right.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 97%

    (:43) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.