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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 4-S.Hauschka 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 20% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.05 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model