Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 6 – Buffalo Bills 24

(4:19) 16-M.Haack punts 39 yards to BUF 32, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model