Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 90

Buffalo Bills 24 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to MIA 48, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant to BUF 26 for 26 yards (44-D.Lacey). PENALTY on BUF-44-D.Lacey, Horse Collar Tackle, 13 yards, enforced at BUF 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.65 EP
60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 90, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model