Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 13 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep middle to 14-J.Landry to BUF 39 for 17 yards (24-L.Johnson) [57-L.Alexander]. Caught at BUF 39, slanting from right.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.02 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP