4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 13 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:43) 1-C.Parkey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.25 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model