Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(8:39) 16-M.Haack punts 41 yards to BUF 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 15-B.Tate to BUF 32 for 2 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.28 EP
75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model