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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 9

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:20) 1-C.Parkey 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-16-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 9, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model